We should be prepared to smallpox re-emergence

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The review contains a brief analysis of the results of investigations conducted during 40 years after smallpox eradication and directed to study genomic organization and evolution of variola virus (VARV) and development of modern diagnostics, vaccines and chemotherapies of smallpox and other zoonotic orthopoxviral infections of humans. Taking into account that smallpox vaccination in several cases had adverse side effects, WHO recommended ceasing this vaccination after 1980 in all countries of the world. The result of this decision is that the mankind lost the collective immunity not only to smallpox, but also to other zoonotic orthopoxvirus infections. The ever more frequently recorded human cases of zoonotic orthopoxvirus infections force to renew consideration of the problem of possible smallpox reemergence resulting from natural evolution of these viruses. Analysis of the available archive data on smallpox epidemics, the history of ancient civilizations, and the newest data on the evolutionary relationship of orthopoxviruses has allowed us to hypothesize that VARV could have repeatedly reemerged via evolutionary changes in a zoonotic ancestor virus and then disappeared because of insufficient population size of isolated ancient civilizations. Only the historically last smallpox pandemic continued for a long time and was contained and stopped in the 20th century thanks to the joint efforts of medics and scientists from many countries under the aegis of WHO. Thus, there is no fundamental prohibition on potential reemergence of smallpox or a similar human disease in future in the course of natural evolution of the currently existing zoonotic orthopoxviruses. Correspondingly, it is of the utmost importance to develop and widely adopt state-of-the-art methods for efficient and rapid species-specific diagnosis of all orthopoxvirus species pathogenic for humans, VARV included. It is also most important to develop new safe methods for prevention and therapy of human orthopoxvirus infections.

About the authors

S. N. Shchelkunov

State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR

Author for correspondence.
Email: snshchel@vector.nsc.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6255-9745
Sergei N. Shchelkunov, Sc.D., professor, chief researcher of the department of genomic research, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk region, 630559, Russia Russian Federation

G. A. Shchelkunova

State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR

Email: fake@neicon.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0708-7826
Koltsovo, Novosibirsk region, 630559, Russia Russian Federation

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